December 4th, 2009
From the National Weather Service: Today: Rain and Snow, becoming all snow after 1 p.m. High near 40.
40. Did you catch that? It's going to be 40 degrees here in Central VA, and they've called for snow.
I saw the happy (or was that mindless) Channel 29 weatherman at 10 a.m. yesterday saying we would have 1 to 2 inches. I laughed out loud as I began my performance at The Cedars.
"They have trouble accurately predicting daylight" I told the audience. Laughter. Nods of agreement.
I suppose the scare tactics combined with a complete inability to predict weather does help the grocery stores sell quite a bit of milk and bread. Our nearby Food Lion was a madhouse.
Checking online the evening of the 4th revealed that the Weather Channel site had two predictions for us - one saying we had a 90% chance of precipitation, the other saying we had a 100% chance. Okay. Sure. It could be both. Yup.
So I look at the weather map, and see that there is a huge mass of clouds south of us, and west of that a teeny mass of clouds. Rain clouds. Set the map in motion and it shows the clouds are moving northeast.
Okay, it could be one of "those" storms - the kind that move up from the south. When these storms turn to snow events the C'ville area usually gets snow, and often heavy accumulations. These storms do not have the mountains to contend with - the storms coming from the west tend to stall at the mountains and while the valley gets snow, we get clouds. This is of course another weather fact totally lost on our local sensationalistic weathergals and -guys.
By the time I went to bed on Friday evening they had revised the prediction upwards to 2 - 4 inches! Forecast high temperature: 39 degrees.
When I got out of bed this morning, around 7 a.m., I went to check the Weather Channel site.
Current temperature: 39 degrees.
Forecast High Temp: 39 degrees.
Hmmm...
Snow Accumulation Prediction: 3 - 5 inches.
A glance at the weather map shows rain rain rain on our side of the mountains, and all of the snow and ice to the west of the mountains. According to the weather map it is snowing and icing in Staunton and Harrisonburg, and it is 32 degrees. Their forecast high is 35, and their prediction is also 3 to 5 inches.
Folks, I have seen it snow when the temperature is above 32 degrees. What I do not recall ever seeing is a 3 to 5 inch accumulation when it is 39 degrees. I am not certain I have ever seen anything more than a sparse flurry when it is 39 degrees, if I have even seen it snow at that temp.
So we'll see.
WGBD* prediction for Charlottesville: Rain baby. Snow after dark when the temps drop. Maybe an inch, but I doubt it, as it is heading to a high of 43 tomorrow and sunny.
It's comical to me how the weather forecasters here, and even those that post the Weather Channel forecast, simply overlook the obvious-to-a-third-grader conflict of a 39 degree temperature prediction with a 3 to 5 inch snow prediction.
...in an area where they correctly forecast snow about 20% of the time.
Seems to me they should discount their percentage chance by the percentage correct. In other words, if they had the balls to keep traqck and admit their pathetic ability to predict snow, they wouls say "We think there is a 90% chance of snow. However, we only get it right about 25% of the time, which results in a 22-1/2% chance of snow folks."
Move along folks. There's little if any snow to see here...
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*Weathermen Get the Best Dope
